Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,377$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(552 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,198.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,198.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $561$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{507.3}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 25.4)}}\) (asimptote \(507.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,070$ on 2020-05-19

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,629$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(50.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,440.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 118.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,440.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(7.43 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{483.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 112.4)}}\) (asimptote \(483.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,278$ on 2020-05-19

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(143 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.7}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(4.77 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 11.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-05-19

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,618$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,252.3}{1 + 10^{-0.093 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,252.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $578$ on 2020-05-19

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,484$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(464 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,908.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 66.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,908.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $659$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(66.9 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{752.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 39.3)}}\) (asimptote \(752.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,083$ on 2020-05-19

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(9.37 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{452.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 50.0)}}\) (asimptote \(452.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $247$ on 2020-05-19

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,502$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(6.15 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,956.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 70.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,956.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(0.288 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 55.1)}}\) (asimptote \(18.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,172$ on 2020-05-19

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,529$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(299 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,997.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,997.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $140$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(10.2 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{200.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(200.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,822$ on 2020-05-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 79%
Niger recovered 76%
Morocco recovered 12%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,044$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(281 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,024.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,024.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43.9}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 16.9)}}\) (asimptote \(43.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $171$ on 2020-05-19

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $914$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(311 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{812.7}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 12.7)}}\) (asimptote \(812.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(8.42 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 33.6)}}\) (asimptote \(69.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $125$ on 2020-05-19

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,023$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(654 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,691.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,691.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $193$ on 2020-05-19

Best fit exponential: \(55.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{186.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 19.5)}}\) (asimptote \(186.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,929$ on 2020-05-19